The performance report of the 2018 Spanish Gp

                                     ALL HAT AND NO CATTLE

Written by Gianluca Medeot

Barcelona, ​​May 13, 2018. A weekend full of controversy and discussions that have hidden a complicated but very interesting technical picture. So, let's analyze the reasons for the different performance of the top three teams.

These are the characteristics of the Barcelona circuit:  it is a medium path / high downforce and medium severity for the power units.

It presents a very complete configuration and it is in fact a circuit that may well outline and enhance the characteristics of a car.

The first sector is very fast so aerodynamic efficiency on the straights is essential. But not forgetting to turn three where you need a very good aerodynamic balance (ratio of the front axle load and the total load). Aerodynamic balance is again very important in the second sector, combined with the right downforce. 

The third sector is instead an intermediate where it counts most of all the traction and therefore the ability to download the horses to the ground, even in conjunction with a balanced behavior in the sequence of 13,14 and 15 curve.

First it is important to highlight what was and to what can lead the much-discussed change of the tires. 0.4 mm of the tread compound have been erased (or 12% of its total). A "lighter" change but can  leads to a decrease of the part of rubber subjected to deformation. In this way, you decrease the energy (in this case heat) that is transferred to the rubber. 

An operation commonly implemented when it is necessary to remove the excess heat that is generated on the tire (we are talking about 7/10 ° less). 

In this case Pirelli has made changes to prevent harmful (in terms of performance) and dangerous sort of blistering which were highlighted on several cars during winter testing.

The modification does not decrease the tire performance, but instead it affects on its duration. This assumption provides us with an important first element of analysis, to be connected to the next data.

The graph with the percentage detachement from the pole position shows a inversion of position compared to Baku between Ferrari and Mercedes, immediately  highlighting that the data emerging from qualifications are not so tragic for Red's fans. There can be a weekend with a little slip, just look at the Mercedes in China and its subsequent rescue. 

A more negative scenario for Red Bull, which, with its trend line, creates, along with that of the Mercedes, nearly a hyperbole. This underlines an exactly opposite trend compared to the Silver Arrows. 

Moving on the graph with the comparison between the actually time marked in Q3 and the "ideal" lap time (the combination of the best sectors), we note that the drivers, unlike past events, were able on average to maintain very similar performance to their ideals. 

Ricciardo is the only one who could have aspired to something more, reaching behind Raikkonen and ahead of his team-mate. 

This very low discrepancy between the times (real and ideal) outlines a general easiness to bring the tyres in temperature once understood what was the best compound for the own car and for his own feeling. Furthermore, the choice could also be influenced by the analysis of the gain that could be mounting the SS. It was known in fact that the SS tended to decline of performance (and overheat) already in the third sector, and it was therefore crucial to understand if indeed the gain in the first and in the second sector was such as to compensate for the time lost in the third.

The graph with the comparison between the qualifying position and the maximum speed detected at the speed trap does not offer us particular analysis cues. 

We note a general leveling of the various surveys, especially between Mercedes and Ferrari, confirming the effectiveness of further updates for mapping qualifying made the Silver Arrows after the Grand Prix in Baku. Reverse situation for Ferrari that has found itself having to be more cautious after the problems in PL2, which led to a serious damage to the ICE 1 on Raikkonen's car.

Analyzing the graphs with percentages detachments in different sectors, one can immediately note that Mercedes has really made a difference compared to Ferrari in the second sector. 

From onboard you notice that Vettel had understeer in Turn 4 and Turn 5 :that caused him to lose much time. Then he brought forward this detachment until the third sector. 

Vettel in this intermediate result is instead the fastest along with Ricciardo (still a good signal in view of Monte Carlo), recovering partially the gap previously formed. 

Both drivers were on soft rubber which, as I pointed out before, can guarantee a more continuous over the entire lap performance.

Right here the two Mercedes (and Verstappen) on the supersoft have been relegated to a detachment of 0.60%. 

Speaking of Ferrari I want to emphasize how the various conspiracies and all the "experts" who attributed the cause of the Ferrari performance only to the new tires,  are wrong. 

Over the last few races we have seen how the SF71H was one of the best cars on the grid with the thermal management of the tires window. Clearly there were also difficulties for them, (because in fact no team has yet established tire model and understand exactly how they work these Pirelli in 2018) but they sure were not hanged at the extremes of the operating windows such as it is or was (we understand this in the next Gp) Mercedes.

Now you can see that it is extremely unlikely that with a so "moderate" change , a car can  step from having an optimal management of the tyres to the situation of not being able even to keep them in temperature (sometimes).

There must have been other variables that have caused this performance.

The first is linked to a leveling of the powers of PU (as I mentioned before). 

The second is logically tied to a not optimal mechanical set up of the car. We know in fact that Ferrari has dropped on the track with different technical updates to the rear, among which the most important is a new rear hub of the arm attack. So it is  likely that the technicians have encountered difficulties in the selection of the set up, which combined with variations on the tires, have led the Red to a mismanagement of the SS in qualifying. The choice for Q3 has therefore felt on soft, with which the drivers had a better feeling but that obviously could not guarantee a pole performance. In the race however there have been strategic errors caused perhaps by a wrong prediction of tire degradation (we will now analyze the race  in detail).

I therefore consider  absolutely useless any external controversy about what happened this weekend. 

It is up to the teams to judge and only the next races will give us confirmation of how much the tyres factor has affected the weekend and what the partial ranking of the season are (since there were too many variables during this Gp).

PU components used by each driver.

                                 RACE'S GRAPHICS (edited by Niccolò Arnerich) 

 FRIDAY RACE SIMULATIONS 

In free practice we did not see much difference between the SS and S rubber, with the latter even seemed to have a better performance. The SS, as reported by Pirelli, did not guarantee a good stability during braking. 

This was one of the factors why the team decided not to use the SS in the race. In addition, the team have not used the red rubber also groped for the strategy to a single stop, starting with S, and then mounting the M. Two types of rubber that gave no problems during braking, unlike the SS, and that offered a good performance.

All the front rows team have opted for this strategy and no one has tried something different. 

Only Alonso started with the SS and has tried to single-stop strategy SS-M.

Charts on strategy simulations. You can find them on our social (Twitter and Facebook) during each race weekend after the second free practice. 

STRATEGY RACE 

THE START
Very important the start in Barcelona as the track offers few overtaking points and togain some positions is critical. The first three have had a very clean start with Vettel who managed to overtake Bottas taking his wake before turn one. 

As for the race distance, the performance of Ferrari and Mercedes in free practice were quite similar 

CONDITIONS OF THE TRACK

The track temperature did not go above 35 ° C. Halfway through the race it's down for a few minutes at 29 ° C and then back on 35 ° C.

THE FIRST STINT

In the first lap joined the SC on the track, but no one, rightly, has pitted. 

In the first stint Hamilton has managed to keep a very competitive pace on S, (a HWR tire). In fact he was as much as 4 tenths per lap faster than Vettel and 5 quicker than Bottas. The English has thus built a very large safety gap on the two drivers behind him and has began to make the pace. 

Vettel has never managed to keep the soft tire in the right temperature. This has caused quite a few balance issues to the SF71H and in the end has also generated a more marked decline than the W09. Vettel still managed to defend  himself against Bottas that several times got close to him .

From the graph of race pace with the fuel weight correction can be seen very clearly how  Hamilton's pace  has been very competitive and also as Vettel has had a much more marked degradation of the tires compared to the other top drivers.

The biggest decline was mainly caused by an imperfect setup of the car throughout the weekend. The degradation, we repeat, was not caused by the thickness of 0.4mm pulled away from the compound by Pirelli for this race and by the consequent lower moving sensation of the tire .

Analyzing the evolution of the degradation in the first stint we find confirm of what has already been seen in the graph above. 

In addition, from this graph, you may well see the improvement of Red Bull during the stint. This, now, is a RB14 feature. In fact, the car does not perform well in the first part of the race, but it takes a few laps and therefore can not immediately express their performance. 

THE SECOND AND THIRD STINT STINT (focus on Vettel)

Ferrari could not even worry Hamilton before the stop. They rather had to worry about the possible under-cut of Mercedes with Bottas. To cover this attempt, in fact, Vettel stopped first on lap 17 and mounted Mediums to go to the end. A early stop still , symptom of a greater degradation. 

Bottas has stopped the following lap, putting on the M too, and trying the Overcut on Vettel. This strategy could  have worked because the German was slowed by Magnussen, but Mercedes' stop has been very slow (3,9 s). This has not allowed the Finn to overtake the Ferrari.

On lap 25 Raikkonen has had problems at the Power unit and Mercedes, thinking of a VSC, stopped Hamilton who passed then to the Medium tire. Note that Hamilton's laps before the pit stop were still very competitive. 

Decisive VSC, due to the stop of Ocon, on lap 42. The Mercedes pit wall brought out their own mens to make Ferrari thinking that they were going to make a free stop and fit a new tire to make a final stint of qualifying and hope for an overtake on Vettel on track, earning second place. Ferrari' strategists, also mindful of the Chinese GP, have decided to cover this strategy and stop Vettel.

Mercedes, however, did not stop and the new tire did not give the hoped improvement. Moreover,  Ferrari's pit stop has been very slow, and so the german lost the position also on Verstappen. 

It was known that there was not much difference between new and used tire and above all that in Barcelona circuit is difficult to overtake. For these reasons, in our opinion, the decision to stop under the VSC was wrong, even if  they did not stop, Bottas would have stopped. This strategy would not heve been fruitful  and hold the position on Bottas would have been safer.

Vettel in the last stint failed to overtake Verstappen, who was running even with a damaged wing. The two Mercedes, in first and second position, continued to keep a very good pace especially because slowing their pace would have meant putting the tire out of the temperature range.

Chart of the Race Pace with the fuel weight effect. You can notice Vettel's improvement, although not to the levels of Mercedes, who was controlling the race. 

Bottas and Hamilton continued to do much good times because, according to what the Finnish said , they had to keep heat into the tires.

The evolution of the degradation in the second stint

This table summarizes, in numbers, the pace of the first four drivers

In the first chart we analyze the "pure" race pace, so without the Fuel Weight Effect.

This graph shows instead the race pace taking account of the Fuel Weight Effect, so the loss of weight of the car during the race due to the fuel consumption.

Finally, the graphic of the evolution of the degradation throughout the whole race.

THE MINOR TEAMS

For the usual analysis of the smaller teams,we  analyze Magnussen, Sainz, Alonso and Perez. 

The first two were held on the strategy considered more "safe" namely a stop M-S. Alonso tried something different in the first stint using the SS rubber. For this he had to stretch a little 'the second stint on yellow tire. Perez went on a two-stop strategy after realizing that the average rubber, mounted at the first stop, did not work. He then pitted to mount a soft tyre, more suited to the car. 

We emphasize once again how Renault has an excessive degradation. In fact, in the last few races, they have always been among the first to have to stop. Obviously, stopping too soon relegate them in the  traffic, making the  race more complicated.

We offer the Fuel Weight Effect graph for the smallest teams 

Finally, also the so-called ''non-linear'' degradation graph

That is all for the moment! See you in Montecarlo !! ;) 

Ps: watch out for the surprises that could give the Red Bulls