The performance report of the 2018 Spanish Gp

                                     ALL HAT AND NO CATTLE

Written by Gianluca Medeot

Barcelona, ​​May 13, 2018. A weekend full of controversy and discussions that have hidden a complicated but very interesting technical picture. So, let's analyze the reasons for the different performance of the top three teams.

These are the characteristics of the Barcelona circuit:  it is a medium path / high downforce and medium severity for the power units.

It presents a very complete configuration and it is in fact a circuit that may well outline and enhance the characteristics of a car.

The first sector is very fast so aerodynamic efficiency on the straights is essential. But not forgetting to turn three where you need a very good aerodynamic balance (ratio of the front axle load and the total load). Aerodynamic balance is again very important in the second sector, combined with the right downforce. 

The third sector is instead an intermediate where it counts most of all the traction and therefore the ability to download the horses to the ground, even in conjunction with a balanced behavior in the sequence of 13,14 and 15 curve.

First it is important to highlight what was and to what can lead the much-discussed change of the tires. 0.4 mm of the tread compound have been erased (or 12% of its total). A "lighter" change but can  leads to a decrease of the part of rubber subjected to deformation. In this way, you decrease the energy (in this case heat) that is transferred to the rubber. 

An operation commonly implemented when it is necessary to remove the excess heat that is generated on the tire (we are talking about 7/10 ° less). 

In this case Pirelli has made changes to prevent harmful (in terms of performance) and dangerous sort of blistering which were highlighted on several cars during winter testing.

The modification does not decrease the tire performance, but instead it affects on its duration. This assumption provides us with an important first element of analysis, to be connected to the next data.

The graph with the percentage detachement from the pole position shows a inversion of position compared to Baku between Ferrari and Mercedes, immediately  highlighting that the data emerging from qualifications are not so tragic for Red's fans. There can be a weekend with a little slip, just look at the Mercedes in China and its subsequent rescue. 

A more negative scenario for Red Bull, which, with its trend line, creates, along with that of the Mercedes, nearly a hyperbole. This underlines an exactly opposite trend compared to the Silver Arrows. 

Moving on the graph with the comparison between the actually time marked in Q3 and the "ideal" lap time (the combination of the best sectors), we note that the drivers, unlike past events, were able on average to maintain very similar performance to their ideals. 

Ricciardo is the only one who could have aspired to something more, reaching behind Raikkonen and ahead of his team-mate. 

This very low discrepancy between the times (real and ideal) outlines a general easiness to bring the tyres in temperature once understood what was the best compound for the own car and for his own feeling. Furthermore, the choice could also be influenced by the analysis of the gain that could be mounting the SS. It was known in fact that the SS tended to decline of performance (and overheat) already in the third sector, and it was therefore crucial to understand if indeed the gain in the first and in the second sector was such as to compensate for the time lost in the third.

The graph with the comparison between the qualifying position and the maximum speed detected at the speed trap does not offer us particular analysis cues. 

We note a general leveling of the various surveys, especially between Mercedes and Ferrari, confirming the effectiveness of further updates for mapping qualifying made the Silver Arrows after the Grand Prix in Baku. Reverse situation for Ferrari that has found itself having to be more cautious after the problems in PL2, which led to a serious damage to the ICE 1 on Raikkonen's car.

Analyzing the graphs with percentages detachments in different sectors, one can immediately note that Mercedes has really made a difference compared to Ferrari in the second sector. 

From onboard you notice that Vettel had understeer in Turn 4 and Turn 5 :that caused him to lose much time. Then he brought forward this detachment until the third sector. 

Vettel in this intermediate result is instead the fastest along with Ricciardo (still a good signal in view of Monte Carlo), recovering partially the gap previously formed. 

Both drivers were on soft rubber which, as I pointed out before, can guarantee a more continuous over the entire lap performance.

Right here the two Mercedes (and Verstappen) on the supersoft have been relegated to a detachment of 0.60%. 

Speaking of Ferrari I want to emphasize how the various conspiracies and all the "experts" who attributed the cause of the Ferrari performance only to the new tires,  are wrong. 

Over the last few races we have seen how the SF71H was one of the best cars on the grid with the thermal management of the tires window. Clearly there were also difficulties for them, (because in fact no team has yet established tire model and understand exactly how they work these Pirelli in 2018) but they sure were not hanged at the extremes of the operating windows such as it is or was (we understand this in the next Gp) Mercedes.

Now you can see that it is extremely unlikely that with a so "moderate" change , a car can  step from having an optimal management of the tyres to the situation of not being able even to keep them in temperature (sometimes).

There must have been other variables that have caused this performance.

The first is linked to a leveling of the powers of PU (as I mentioned before). 

The second is logically tied to a not optimal mechanical set up of the car. We know in fact that Ferrari has dropped on the track with different technical updates to the rear, among which the most important is a new rear hub of the arm attack. So it is  likely that the technicians have encountered difficulties in the selection of the set up, which combined with variations on the tires, have led the Red to a mismanagement of the SS in qualifying. The choice for Q3 has therefore felt on soft, with which the drivers had a better feeling but that obviously could not guarantee a pole performance. In the race however there have been strategic errors caused perhaps by a wrong prediction of tire degradation (we will now analyze the race  in detail).

I therefore consider  absolutely useless any external controversy about what happened this weekend. 

It is up to the teams to judge and only the next races will give us confirmation of how much the tyres factor has affected the weekend and what the partial ranking of the season are (since there were too many variables during this Gp).

PU components used by each driver.

                                 RACE'S GRAPHICS (edited by Niccolò Arnerich) 

 FRIDAY RACE SIMULATIONS 

In free practice we did not see much difference between the SS and S rubber, with the latter even seemed to have a better performance. The SS, as reported by Pirelli, did not guarantee a good stability during braking. 

This was one of the factors why the team decided not to use the SS in the race. In addition, the team have not used the red rubber also groped for the strategy to a single stop, starting with S, and then mounting the M. Two types of rubber that gave no problems during braking, unlike the SS, and that offered a good performance.

All the front rows team have opted for this strategy and no one has tried something different. 

Only Alonso started with the SS and has tried to single-stop strategy SS-M.

Charts on strategy simulations. You can find them on our social (Twitter and Facebook) during each race weekend after the second free practice. 

STRATEGY RACE 

THE START
Very important the start in Barcelona as the track offers few overtaking points and togain some positions is critical. The first three have had a very clean start with Vettel who managed to overtake Bottas taking his wake before turn one. 

As for the race distance, the performance of Ferrari and Mercedes in free practice were quite similar 

CONDITIONS OF THE TRACK

The track temperature did not go above 35 ° C. Halfway through the race it's down for a few minutes at 29 ° C and then back on 35 ° C.

THE FIRST STINT

In the first lap joined the SC on the track, but no one, rightly, has pitted. 

In the first stint Hamilton has managed to keep a very competitive pace on S, (a HWR tire). In fact he was as much as 4 tenths per lap faster than Vettel and 5 quicker than Bottas. The English has thus built a very large safety gap on the two drivers behind him and has began to make the pace. 

Vettel has never managed to keep the soft tire in the right temperature. This has caused quite a few balance issues to the SF71H and in the end has also generated a more marked decline than the W09. Vettel still managed to defend  himself against Bottas that several times got close to him .

From the graph of race pace with the fuel weight correction can be seen very clearly how  Hamilton's pace  has been very competitive and also as Vettel has had a much more marked degradation of the tires compared to the other top drivers.

The biggest decline was mainly caused by an imperfect setup of the car throughout the weekend. The degradation, we repeat, was not caused by the thickness of 0.4mm pulled away from the compound by Pirelli for this race and by the consequent lower moving sensation of the tire .

Analyzing the evolution of the degradation in the first stint we find confirm of what has already been seen in the graph above. 

In addition, from this graph, you may well see the improvement of Red Bull during the stint. This, now, is a RB14 feature. In fact, the car does not perform well in the first part of the race, but it takes a few laps and therefore can not immediately express their performance. 

THE SECOND AND THIRD STINT STINT (focus on Vettel)

Ferrari could not even worry Hamilton before the stop. They rather had to worry about the possible under-cut of Mercedes with Bottas. To cover this attempt, in fact, Vettel stopped first on lap 17 and mounted Mediums to go to the end. A early stop still , symptom of a greater degradation. 

Bottas has stopped the following lap, putting on the M too, and trying the Overcut on Vettel. This strategy could  have worked because the German was slowed by Magnussen, but Mercedes' stop has been very slow (3,9 s). This has not allowed the Finn to overtake the Ferrari.

On lap 25 Raikkonen has had problems at the Power unit and Mercedes, thinking of a VSC, stopped Hamilton who passed then to the Medium tire. Note that Hamilton's laps before the pit stop were still very competitive. 

Decisive VSC, due to the stop of Ocon, on lap 42. The Mercedes pit wall brought out their own mens to make Ferrari thinking that they were going to make a free stop and fit a new tire to make a final stint of qualifying and hope for an overtake on Vettel on track, earning second place. Ferrari' strategists, also mindful of the Chinese GP, have decided to cover this strategy and stop Vettel.

Mercedes, however, did not stop and the new tire did not give the hoped improvement. Moreover,  Ferrari's pit stop has been very slow, and so the german lost the position also on Verstappen. 

It was known that there was not much difference between new and used tire and above all that in Barcelona circuit is difficult to overtake. For these reasons, in our opinion, the decision to stop under the VSC was wrong, even if  they did not stop, Bottas would have stopped. This strategy would not heve been fruitful  and hold the position on Bottas would have been safer.

Vettel in the last stint failed to overtake Verstappen, who was running even with a damaged wing. The two Mercedes, in first and second position, continued to keep a very good pace especially because slowing their pace would have meant putting the tire out of the temperature range.

Chart of the Race Pace with the fuel weight effect. You can notice Vettel's improvement, although not to the levels of Mercedes, who was controlling the race. 

Bottas and Hamilton continued to do much good times because, according to what the Finnish said , they had to keep heat into the tires.

The evolution of the degradation in the second stint

This table summarizes, in numbers, the pace of the first four drivers

In the first chart we analyze the "pure" race pace, so without the Fuel Weight Effect.

This graph shows instead the race pace taking account of the Fuel Weight Effect, so the loss of weight of the car during the race due to the fuel consumption.

Finally, the graphic of the evolution of the degradation throughout the whole race.

THE MINOR TEAMS

For the usual analysis of the smaller teams,we  analyze Magnussen, Sainz, Alonso and Perez. 

The first two were held on the strategy considered more "safe" namely a stop M-S. Alonso tried something different in the first stint using the SS rubber. For this he had to stretch a little 'the second stint on yellow tire. Perez went on a two-stop strategy after realizing that the average rubber, mounted at the first stop, did not work. He then pitted to mount a soft tyre, more suited to the car. 

We emphasize once again how Renault has an excessive degradation. In fact, in the last few races, they have always been among the first to have to stop. Obviously, stopping too soon relegate them in the  traffic, making the  race more complicated.

We offer the Fuel Weight Effect graph for the smallest teams 

Finally, also the so-called ''non-linear'' degradation graph

That is all for the moment! See you in Montecarlo !! ;) 

Ps: watch out for the surprises that could give the Red Bulls

The performance analysis of the 2018 Chinese Gp

                          TYRES' LOTTERY

Written by Gianluca Medeot

Shanghai, April 15th 2018. An eventful race that covered a qualification in which it has been outlined. an interesting but at the same time complex technical framework. 

So, let's analyze what there is behind teams' performance ( we will consider the 10 car qualyfied in Q3).

In order to have  a clearer and more effective analysis it is essential to outline the characteristics of the Chinese track: it is a medium / high downforce circuit and medium severity for thrusters (traveling at fully open throttle for approximately 56% of the lap).

The first sector is very slow and traction is critical. On the contrary, the second, is a fast sector with two large-radius curves in which much load and especially a correct aerodynamic balance are needed to prevent harmful phenomena of understeer. The third is instead formed by a stretch of  1.3 km where there is needed a lot of straight efficiency (the union between PU's power and cx), with a final section (the last and penultimate curve) in which traction is again very important.

The charts with percentages detachment from pole position don't provide us with particular issues for analysis, but they outline Mercedes' and Red Bull's negative trend of the last GPs. All the second range team maintain their trend , with the exception of Toro Rosso which gained a 3% detachment after the positive exploit in Bahrain.

The element that has probably influenced the most cars' performances during the weekend was definitely the continuous change of track temperature: 20° on Friday, 15° on Saturday (there were also gusts of wind) and 40° on  Sunday. The thermal excursion was really high and very difficult to handle for the team, considering the very strice " temperature windows" in which  the 2018 tires work. This element, combined with the length of the main straight, made very difficult for the drivers to keep the tires in this operating window.

From the graph with the comparison between the real times recorded in Q3 and "ideal" times we can see these difficulties.  Only two Q3's drivers( Vettel and Perez) managed to score their best time in the crucial moment. 

We must underline that Raikkonen  had "in his foot" the chance to make pole position.

It is very interesting to analyze the maximum speeds recorded at the speed trap. It is very clear  the differentation of set up between the two Ferraris, with Vettel who went for slightly lower load. The microsector map proposed by Fom, shows clearly the predominance of Vettel in the straights, that in chronometric terms pay a lot on this particular track. 

Mercedes aligns to Ferrari datas confirming pairing in terms (on qualifying maps ) of power between the two PUs. This is a  very important signal for Ferrari, which will now have to focus on the efficiency of race's mapping to avoid those stint in which drivers are forced to carry out an obvious fuel-saving.

Analyzing the percentages detachments in the different sectors, we can notice  that the Ferraris are faster in every intermediate, but they really made the difference with the silver arrow in the first one

A detachment of more than one percent for both Mercedes drivers. A surprising data  because in the second sector, which has practically identical characteristics, the gaps appear to be much more light.

The most plausible explanation could be a lack of temperature on the tires.

This observation provides us the opportunity to briefly talk about the problem that I have mentioned before. 

In the Q2 Mercedes marked a super competitive lap with the  Soft before improving only two tenths with the Ultrasoft. In Australia with Supersoft it was uncatchable in qualifying, but it then sunk in Bahrain always with the same compound.

Competitive within the averages in Bahrain, and fearful in China in mounting the Soft in the race fearing the an overheating. 

It's clear that the main W09's problem (for now)  is to keep the tires in the right temperature window. 

It should however be emphasized that also the other teams have similar difficulties.

Ferrari outlined very different behaviors in different Gp, but also between the different sessions.

So it is clear clear that the "tire factor" will represent a great wild cart in the  2018 championship because of the very tight operational windows of these new tires (at the bottom you will find a summary table of the different tires). 

It is difficult to give an explanation to such problems highlighted by Mercedes. If in fact the most rigid set-up dictated by the use of a less pronounced rake could justify the overheating phenomena with low working range tires, through the external analysis is more difficult to justify the problems to bring them to the temperature shown in China.

Nothing to add for Ferrari which was perfect in the qualifying lap, precise insertion in curve and no signs of oversteer, all confirming the progressive refinement throughout the mechanical set-up carried out by the team.

Important to mention the Red Bull that finally had the opportunity to show its potential in the race, waiting for a street circuit where it can really show off its frame capabilities, constantly hidden by the PU power gap.

Looking at  the graphs we can  see that obviously the third sector is the one in which they lost more time, then settling in the first and second almost to the levels of Mercedes. 

A  remarkable data  considering the very low angles of incidence of the wings used in order not to lose too much in a straight line (matched then with a pronounced rake and the use of a refined third hydraulic element that perfectly manages of the height of the car from the ground).

For the moment its all folks, see you in Baku!!! ;)

Temperature range for the different compounds

                          RACE'S GRAPHICS (edited by Niccolò Arnerich)




FRIDAY SIMULATION

Very low temperatures of the track during simulations made on Friday. The temperature of the asphalt roamed, in fact, about 14 ° C. From the long runs it has shown that the safest strategy was a one-stop strategy, starting with S before moving to M. This is because the UltraSoft seemed to have a rather high degradation, with an anticipated cliff, which would have addressed the race on two stops and not on one. 

Ferrari and Mercedes have decided to qualify in Q2 with Soft tires, unlike Red Bull, who qualified with the US , to try the two-stop strategy.

The strategies were still very similar, as can be seen from the graph below, but the US was partly unknown because it was not sure he could make the strategy work at a stop sign.

We remind that the Pirelli decided to bring here Medium, Soft and Ultrasoft.

THE RACE STRATEGY:

 TRACK  CONDITIONS

Very different track conditions on Sunday. Temperatures were in fact much higher and fluctuated about 39 ° C. 

THE START OF THE GRAND PRIX

Good start for Vettel who immediately went to forcefully close the door to Raikkonen. Bottas was then able to overtake the Finn into the first corner and this fact did gave the race a very different direction from the one that could have taken in terms of strategy, having two Ferraris in charge. 

THE FIRST STINT 

In the first stint Vettel managed to create a 3s gap on Bottas and both because  he had clean air in front of him, and  staying in the slipstream of another car for more laps was not very "healthy" for the W09.

Standing in the wash of another car causes infact an overheating of the compound, as well as an overheating of the components of the Power Unit, which causes a greater degradation of the compound and a rise in temperature. 

Hamilton was close to Raikkonen just managing to get close before the stop.

Verstappen held a rhythm with the US worse than that of Ferrari and Mercedes on S. His pace was not good at all if you think that his strategy was marked by two stop and therefore, to make it work, he wshould have had to run on much fester lap-times. It can also be assumed that RedBull's pitwall was trying the one-stop strategy US-M, with an advantage during the starting phase thanks to the greater grip of UltraSoft, and that therefore the Dutch was trying to lengthen the life of this compound; eventually they definitely opted for two stops as their first stop took place too early, on lap 17.  The Same was for the RB14 Ricciardo, who was also on the same strategy. 

From the graph with the the fuel weight effect correction it is clear that Raikkonen has had a lower degradation compared to Vettel-Bottas couple, who has had a rather similar degradation, slightly more pronounced on the Finnish car. Ricciardo with the US, however, has suffered a much greater degradation.

THE SECOND AND THIRD STINT (OF REDBULL) 

The first to stop to go to the second stint were the Red Bulls. For both drivers it was mounted a M in a double pit stop. Ricciardo has also earned the position on Raikkonen, who has been out for much longer on the Soft tire. 

Raikkonen stayed out until lap 27 to try to have an advantage in the last stint, on average, after the undercut tested by Hamilton had worked. Because of that he lost his position both on Hamilton and Ricciardo. He later had the advantage of having a new tire when the group was bunched up because of the lap 31 SC.

Looking at  the  Vettel-Bottas couple in command, Mercedes' strategists , under the command of James Vowles,  decided to try the undercut with Bottas, then having a stop on lap 19. The undercut on paper was very difficult because the gap was well-over 3s. Bottas, however, did a very good lap and, helped by slow stop by Vettel in the next lap (1s exact total more slow times are measured in pit lane), he came out ahead of the German who, in later rounds,  tried invain to overtake on the track. Plus, by analyzing Vettel's lap, it can be noticed that the rubber began to degrade and therefore most a few tenths were  lost at this stage. The Ferrari's wall would have to defend itself before stopping their driver and neutralizing Mercedes' undercut attempt.

On lap 31 the SC entered for the contact in corner 14 between Hartley and Gasly. This was the golden opportunity for the two RedBull that, by stopping, lost less time for the second pit stop and found themselves with a fresh S tire for the final stint. Vettel, Bottas and Hamilton have not taken advantage of this SC because when output had already passed what the team called "Safety Car Line 1" that is the pit entry. 

Both Ferrari and Mercedes failed to show the delta between the two compounds that is very  important to determine the stop. On paper the ground lost with this option will not balance positions theoretically gained later so they had to stay out. 

Hence  Ricciardo's  and Verstappen  recovery which leads the Australian to win the grand prix. The two Mercedes and Vettel still had the  Medium rubber which was less performing than the Soft in that arc race. 

Highlighting Ricciardo's comeback in the central part of the graph who lifted his time managing the gap created. It is also known as Vettel has greatly raised its timing, because of the Medium degradation, and especially at the end of the stint because of the floor's damage (caused by the contact with Verstappen).

We can notice from these graphs of the degradation that the Mercedes made better use of the compounds with higher temperature window, between 100 ° and 140 °, much higher compared to compounds such as the US or the SS. The compounds are very sensitive and to work well they must remain in their proper range. A few degrees can therefore significantly change car's performance. Mercedes is having some problems from this point of view also in the race, but the problem is reduced with higher range compounds.

This is the graph in which are represented the paces of Vettel's race, Raikkonen, Bottas and Ricciardo. This chart does not take into account the Fuel Weight Effect.

Here, instead, the chart representing the steps race with the correction of the Fuel Weight Effect namely the loss of weight due to fuel consumption during the race. 

Another very useful chart to see the actual degradation that has had the tire during the race.

Through this chart you can view the strategies used by the riders in the race. In the second one are underlined the paces of Vettel, Botaas Raikkonen and Ricciardo during the stints.

THE MINOR TEAMS 

Now, as always, we will examine the graphs for some teams that stand out during the Chinese GP. The charts then take into account the whole race Hulkenberg, Alonso, Magnussen and Ocon. 

Here, instead, the graph representing the race pace with the correction of the Fuel Weight Effect namely the loss of weight due to fuel consumption during the race.

Finally the graph of the development of degradation lap by lap of the second group of riders